* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * KATRINA 08/27/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 88 90 93 97 102 110 113 113 111 103 91 82 V (KT) LAND 85 88 90 93 97 102 110 113 91 48 34 29 30 SHEAR (KTS) 17 21 19 15 8 9 7 7 15 22 30 36 43 SHEAR DIR 5 7 20 23 5 357 227 221 174 220 240 272 283 SST (C) 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.3 30.5 30.7 30.5 28.8 27.2 26.3 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 154 132 122 106 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.5 -50.9 -50.2 -50.1 -49.6 -48.5 -48.1 -47.3 -47.6 -47.0 -47.7 -47.7 TH_E DEV (C) 15 14 13 14 14 11 13 9 9 3 4 0 3 500-300 MB RH 56 61 56 60 63 62 68 66 67 68 58 47 42 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 -1 -4 1 -1 -1 1 10 2 17 16 1 4 850 MB VORT 60 42 21 59 52 61 95 103 99 104 110 130 163 LAND (KM) 201 225 254 294 336 397 217 80 -30 -296 -624 -535 -217 LAT (DEG N) 24.7 24.8 24.9 25.1 25.2 26.1 27.4 28.9 30.8 33.3 36.4 39.1 41.5 LONG(DEG W) 83.3 83.9 84.5 85.1 85.7 87.1 88.2 88.5 88.3 87.3 85.4 81.6 76.3 HEAT CONTENT 77 70 64 78 90 91 73 52 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 250/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 604 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 22 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 75 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 14. 9. 2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -5. -5. -5. -2. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -21. -25. -28. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 16. 23. 26. 28. 25. 18. 7. -3. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 8. 12. 17. 25. 28. 28. 26. 18. 6. -3. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KATRINA 8/27/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.66 SST (C) : Value: 30.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.98 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 80.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.48 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.57 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 97.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.96 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.68 Scaled RI index= 5.25 Prob of RI= 45.2% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)