* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/27/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 30 32 35 34 35 37 39 38 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 30 32 35 34 35 37 39 38 SHEAR (KTS) 23 26 25 24 22 21 20 23 23 21 18 23 31 SHEAR DIR 61 63 68 73 71 56 50 33 35 6 18 13 14 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.5 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 146 148 148 146 145 143 149 154 157 159 160 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -53.7 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 12 12 13 13 13 500-300 MB RH 67 69 72 68 69 67 62 58 57 50 48 49 59 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 2 0 1 0 -6 -11 -4 -2 -3 -2 5 -5 850 MB VORT 30 33 29 20 24 30 19 10 -7 -25 -49 -85 -107 LAND (KM) 1578 1588 1607 1604 1532 1391 1302 1214 1196 1097 1001 846 710 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.1 11.4 11.7 12.0 12.8 13.8 14.7 15.8 16.9 18.0 19.1 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 35.9 36.9 37.8 38.8 39.8 42.2 44.7 47.4 50.2 53.0 55.4 57.7 59.3 HEAT CONTENT 24 19 22 25 26 32 34 38 68 87 80 84 70 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 717 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 6 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 23. 27. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -14. -17. -20. -22. -24. -26. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 9. 11. 13. 15. 15. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 10. 12. 14. 13. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/27/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 23.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.46 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.67 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 122.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.87 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 85.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.93 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 44.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.33 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 19.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.61 Scaled RI index= 4.58 Prob of RI= 21.4% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)