* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/27/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 46 53 62 68 75 82 88 88 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 46 53 62 68 75 82 88 88 SHEAR (KTS) 18 20 17 16 19 14 14 13 13 8 7 15 27 SHEAR DIR 248 253 245 233 227 238 293 266 303 300 266 284 298 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.7 28.3 27.7 27.1 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 148 149 152 154 155 157 157 152 146 138 131 126 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.8 -54.9 -54.5 -54.5 -54.8 -54.2 -54.3 -54.2 -54.6 -54.3 -54.8 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 7 6 500-300 MB RH 45 50 53 53 53 50 46 57 57 63 64 64 63 MO FLX (M/S/D) 10 -4 -10 -5 1 7 5 2 17 13 0 -3 0 850 MB VORT 74 68 69 61 38 38 34 36 51 64 84 90 77 LAND (KM) 1595 1569 1497 1425 1362 1298 1307 1410 1612 1627 1455 1212 990 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 21.1 21.6 22.3 23.0 24.4 25.9 27.5 29.5 31.5 33.6 35.8 37.9 LONG(DEG W) 50.0 50.9 51.8 52.7 53.6 55.0 56.0 56.2 55.6 54.6 53.3 52.4 51.2 HEAT CONTENT 37 37 43 44 41 42 40 30 19 15 9 9 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 13 CX,CY: -8/ 9 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 725 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 12 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 26. 34. 40. 47. 53. 58. 60. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 23. 32. 38. 45. 52. 58. 58. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/27/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 18.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.61 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.69 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 119.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.85 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.54 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.67 Scaled RI index= 4.06 Prob of RI= 12.5% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)