* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * IRWIN 08/27/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 43 44 46 45 42 40 38 37 34 31 V (KT) LAND 45 44 44 43 44 46 45 42 40 38 37 34 31 SHEAR (KTS) 16 14 13 12 12 10 19 22 23 20 19 14 15 SHEAR DIR 87 106 110 115 113 116 110 130 128 126 102 98 88 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.3 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.6 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 144 144 144 140 135 131 129 128 128 132 137 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -52.1 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 500-300 MB RH 64 64 61 54 45 43 32 29 22 23 20 22 20 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 0 2 2 -6 -2 3 8 2 3 0 850 MB VORT 43 49 52 49 40 40 28 26 25 27 8 0 -16 LAND (KM) 591 602 629 673 728 851 976 1137 1297 1440 1548 1690 1844 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.7 17.7 17.8 17.8 17.9 17.8 17.5 17.2 16.9 16.8 16.5 16.2 LONG(DEG W) 110.5 111.5 112.4 113.4 114.4 116.2 118.0 120.0 121.8 123.3 124.5 126.0 127.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 547 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -2 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -13. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 0. 2. 1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -11. -14. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRWIN 8/27/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.63 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.26 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.32 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 99.7 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.64 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.25 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 19.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.0 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.26 Scaled RI index= 2.35 Prob of RI= 2.7% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)