* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * KATRINA 08/27/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 98 101 105 109 116 123 126 124 120 110 98 85 V (KT) LAND 95 98 101 105 109 116 123 126 73 41 31 29 29 SHEAR (KTS) 19 18 13 4 9 4 11 16 25 26 24 24 34 SHEAR DIR 358 12 30 22 319 119 240 180 209 216 229 232 246 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.2 30.5 30.7 31.0 30.3 28.5 27.4 26.4 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 149 134 123 105 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.9 -49.9 -49.6 -49.7 -48.3 -47.5 -46.3 -46.8 -46.5 -45.7 -46.6 -47.2 TH_E DEV (C) 14 14 15 15 13 13 13 11 7 7 3 5 1 500-300 MB RH 61 59 58 65 62 66 60 65 60 53 40 34 29 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 -1 -2 0 -5 0 -5 -4 -14 -13 -2 14 28 850 MB VORT 64 50 62 80 79 115 113 159 143 137 112 126 94 LAND (KM) 184 211 245 323 401 336 202 19 -111 -333 -579 -672 -407 LAT (DEG N) 24.4 24.4 24.4 24.8 25.2 26.2 27.3 29.1 31.4 33.7 35.8 38.6 41.8 LONG(DEG W) 84.0 84.7 85.4 86.1 86.8 88.3 89.6 89.7 89.2 88.1 86.7 83.4 78.6 HEAT CONTENT 67 72 89 104 104 92 118 49 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 250/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 559 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 11 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 85 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 15. 15. 14. 11. 4. -4. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -13. -18. -21. -25. -29. -33. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -4. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 20. 20. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 9. 12. 20. 25. 28. 27. 23. 14. 2. -11. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 14. 21. 28. 31. 29. 25. 15. 3. -10. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KATRINA 8/27/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.74 SST (C) : Value: 30.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.97 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 70.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.39 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.58 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 97.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.96 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 15.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.76 Scaled RI index= 5.31 Prob of RI= 47.1% is 3.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)