* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/27/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 29 33 37 41 44 46 50 55 57 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 29 33 37 41 44 46 50 55 57 SHEAR (KTS) 19 21 21 19 17 15 14 20 15 16 13 11 15 SHEAR DIR 57 58 69 67 72 57 34 28 6 9 342 15 41 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.4 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 146 146 145 143 148 154 157 160 162 160 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.3 -53.7 -54.1 -54.4 -53.8 -54.4 -54.0 -54.3 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 12 13 13 13 500-300 MB RH 68 73 70 68 70 68 68 61 53 50 51 53 55 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 -1 0 -7 -3 0 0 0 6 8 5 850 MB VORT 30 28 16 14 17 25 19 5 -6 -16 -41 -73 -89 LAND (KM) 1625 1647 1599 1513 1438 1331 1239 1204 1105 1003 807 716 762 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.8 12.2 12.6 12.9 13.9 14.8 15.8 16.9 18.3 19.9 21.9 23.8 LONG(DEG W) 36.9 38.1 39.2 40.5 41.7 44.4 47.1 50.0 52.9 55.8 58.2 60.0 61.3 HEAT CONTENT 19 24 25 26 31 34 36 66 87 77 82 62 59 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 730 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 14 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 12. 16. 20. 24. 27. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 27. 31. 34. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 25. 30. 32. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/27/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 19.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.58 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.66 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 121.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.86 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 84.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.88 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.19 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.46 Scaled RI index= 4.33 Prob of RI= 15.8% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)