* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/27/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 39 45 53 61 67 73 79 83 80 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 39 45 53 61 67 73 79 83 80 SHEAR (KTS) 21 20 16 18 21 10 15 14 11 12 19 22 19 SHEAR DIR 250 250 241 221 235 238 260 277 295 328 353 347 3 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.0 28.6 28.2 27.7 27.2 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 151 152 154 154 157 159 157 151 145 138 132 134 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.0 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.3 -53.0 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 500-300 MB RH 47 52 51 49 49 49 50 58 62 60 59 56 56 MO FLX (M/S/D) -15 -11 -3 0 2 12 13 20 5 0 -12 -28 -8 850 MB VORT 61 63 56 39 27 30 37 35 27 45 17 -6 -40 LAND (KM) 1505 1431 1354 1301 1256 1206 1260 1395 1599 1498 1296 1098 917 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.4 21.9 22.6 23.2 24.6 26.1 27.9 30.0 32.0 33.8 35.7 37.4 LONG(DEG W) 51.5 52.4 53.3 54.1 54.8 56.2 56.8 56.9 56.5 56.6 57.2 57.6 57.6 HEAT CONTENT 42 46 46 50 54 50 41 28 19 13 15 4 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 810 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 26 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 13. 16. 19. 21. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 26. 34. 40. 46. 51. 53. 52. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 23. 31. 37. 43. 49. 53. 50. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/27/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 19.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.58 SST (C) : Value: 28.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.71 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 121.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.86 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.54 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 8.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.38 Scaled RI index= 3.79 Prob of RI= 9.2% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)