* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * IRWIN 08/27/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 38 38 40 39 37 34 34 32 30 27 V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 38 38 40 39 37 34 34 32 30 27 SHEAR (KTS) 14 12 13 14 13 13 23 23 27 19 19 18 15 SHEAR DIR 98 109 114 117 125 119 127 119 127 117 109 97 102 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.1 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.1 26.3 26.7 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 145 144 143 138 133 131 129 127 129 133 136 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 6 6 500-300 MB RH 66 64 57 50 49 40 32 26 22 20 20 21 20 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 1 3 3 0 0 1 5 0 3 1 4 850 MB VORT 35 37 36 32 29 30 19 21 24 15 18 -3 0 LAND (KM) 617 650 696 744 800 944 1083 1213 1321 1450 1601 1731 1858 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.5 17.5 17.6 17.6 17.5 17.4 17.2 17.1 17.0 16.9 16.6 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 111.4 112.4 113.4 114.3 115.2 117.0 119.1 120.7 122.0 123.5 125.2 126.7 128.1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 265/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 617 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 1 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 12. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. -1. -3. -6. -6. -8. -10. -13. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRWIN 8/27/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.1 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.27 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.31 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 104.5 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.68 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.0 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.27 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 18.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.2 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.38 Scaled RI index= 2.39 Prob of RI= 2.8% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)