* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * KATRINA 08/27/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 103 108 111 114 122 127 125 119 112 98 84 70 V (KT) LAND 100 103 108 111 114 122 127 104 49 34 29 28 29 SHEAR (KTS) 17 9 6 11 9 11 8 25 22 31 23 35 38 SHEAR DIR 4 25 351 332 16 199 176 198 203 201 206 208 227 SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.6 30.9 30.9 29.2 27.7 26.8 26.3 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 160 138 127 122 110 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -49.8 -49.7 -50.0 -49.2 -48.0 -46.9 -46.2 -46.3 -46.0 -46.5 -47.0 -47.1 TH_E DEV (C) 15 15 15 14 11 14 10 10 4 8 2 5 1 500-300 MB RH 56 61 65 60 63 64 58 56 45 28 22 16 13 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 1 0 0 3 0 10 -5 9 3 30 -9 1 850 MB VORT 49 71 73 79 92 131 143 140 133 100 78 31 19 LAND (KM) 207 249 299 388 423 277 100 7 -247 -467 -706 -694 -458 LAT (DEG N) 24.4 24.5 24.6 25.0 25.4 26.6 28.2 30.3 32.6 34.9 36.9 38.9 40.9 LONG(DEG W) 84.6 85.3 86.0 86.9 87.7 89.3 90.0 90.1 89.5 88.2 86.3 83.5 80.1 HEAT CONTENT 68 85 103 110 56 146 64 12 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 532 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 20 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 90 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 9. 13. 14. 13. 10. 5. -3. -12. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -23. -27. -31. -34. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -6. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 19. 24. 22. 17. 9. -3. -16. -31. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 8. 11. 14. 22. 27. 25. 19. 12. -1. -16. -30. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KATRINA 8/27/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.79 SST (C) : Value: 30.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.97 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 65.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.35 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.52 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.99 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 14.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.79 Scaled RI index= 5.29 Prob of RI= 46.6% is 3.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)