* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/27/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 42 45 48 52 57 61 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 42 45 48 52 57 61 SHEAR (KTS) 24 22 19 18 14 15 16 16 14 11 11 7 7 SHEAR DIR 55 66 68 70 61 72 37 29 7 349 325 307 324 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.4 28.9 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 146 146 146 146 146 145 148 155 160 162 165 165 164 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.6 -54.0 -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 -54.4 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.9 -54.3 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 12 13 12 13 12 500-300 MB RH 70 70 69 69 66 66 63 55 52 48 53 52 54 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 1 0 0 -1 -8 0 -3 -1 -1 0 0 2 850 MB VORT 21 13 12 11 15 8 1 -14 -23 -38 -49 -62 -96 LAND (KM) 1640 1601 1514 1426 1352 1218 1124 1057 837 747 466 366 502 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.3 14.0 14.7 15.5 16.3 17.4 18.8 20.7 22.8 LONG(DEG W) 37.8 39.1 40.4 41.9 43.3 46.2 49.3 52.5 55.7 58.7 61.3 63.3 64.5 HEAT CONTENT 23 26 25 31 33 38 56 85 82 83 94 68 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 714 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 23 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 28. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 20. 24. 28. 33. 38. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 13. 17. 20. 23. 27. 32. 36. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/27/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 19.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.58 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.66 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 121.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.86 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 82.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.83 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 66.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.59 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 27.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.35 Scaled RI index= 4.57 Prob of RI= 21.1% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)