* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * IRWIN 08/27/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 31 30 30 31 31 30 29 29 28 26 24 V (KT) LAND 35 32 31 30 30 31 31 30 29 29 28 26 24 SHEAR (KTS) 11 11 14 14 13 20 20 26 21 23 15 17 12 SHEAR DIR 104 107 109 116 114 114 129 124 124 111 118 113 112 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.1 26.7 26.4 26.0 25.9 26.1 26.1 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 145 144 142 138 133 130 126 125 127 127 124 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -51.1 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 4 5 5 500-300 MB RH 66 57 52 51 47 35 32 23 23 19 19 19 20 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 2 0 0 -1 1 8 4 3 8 0 1 850 MB VORT 46 41 38 44 47 39 31 27 25 13 12 -2 3 LAND (KM) 649 693 749 801 860 981 1089 1220 1347 1497 1637 1764 1891 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.4 17.3 17.4 17.4 17.3 17.4 17.3 17.4 17.3 17.3 17.3 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 112.1 113.1 114.0 114.9 115.8 117.3 119.2 120.9 122.6 124.3 126.2 127.9 129.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 656 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 0 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 45 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 10. 12. 14. 14. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -9. -8. -6. -5. -3. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -15. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -11. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRWIN 8/27/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.31 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.31 SST (C) : Value: 27.7 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.30 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 109.1 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.73 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.24 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 19.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 21.6 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.32 Scaled RI index= 2.21 Prob of RI= 2.5% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)