* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * KATRINA 08/27/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 102 106 110 116 124 130 128 123 116 105 93 81 V (KT) LAND 100 102 106 110 116 124 106 61 38 30 28 29 30 SHEAR (KTS) 10 10 10 5 5 6 13 26 22 24 23 31 35 SHEAR DIR 5 22 19 13 78 238 185 218 219 235 228 225 221 SST (C) 30.2 30.1 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.8 31.0 29.9 28.1 27.0 26.3 25.6 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 143 129 122 115 103 200 MB T (C) -49.7 -49.6 -50.0 -49.1 -48.1 -47.7 -46.6 -47.4 -46.7 -47.2 -47.7 -48.1 -47.6 TH_E DEV (C) 15 14 14 12 12 11 11 7 7 4 6 2 3 500-300 MB RH 56 67 66 62 68 65 67 60 56 44 34 27 28 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -3 -2 0 2 4 0 -8 2 2 23 8 -3 850 MB VORT 75 89 88 93 124 113 141 106 117 97 114 105 117 LAND (KM) 249 306 366 419 368 167 -29 -156 -387 -638 -739 -567 -402 LAT (DEG N) 24.5 24.7 24.8 25.4 25.9 27.6 29.6 31.8 34.1 36.4 38.5 40.5 42.4 LONG(DEG W) 85.3 86.1 86.8 87.6 88.3 89.5 90.1 89.9 88.9 87.1 84.7 81.7 78.2 HEAT CONTENT 84 104 114 106 120 79 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 559 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 45 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 100 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 13. 8. 1. -7. -16. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 3. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -12. -15. -19. -23. -26. -29. -32. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. 20. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 22. 27. 24. 19. 11. 2. -10. -22. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 10. 16. 24. 30. 28. 23. 16. 5. -7. -19. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KATRINA 8/27/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.87 SST (C) : Value: 30.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.97 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 65.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.35 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.54 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 94.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.93 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.73 Scaled RI index= 5.09 Prob of RI= 39.6% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)