* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/27/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 40 44 48 49 51 53 55 56 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 40 44 48 49 51 53 55 56 SHEAR (KTS) 19 16 17 19 15 14 21 22 20 13 16 14 20 SHEAR DIR 65 52 46 42 39 24 20 6 19 11 15 1 19 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.4 28.9 29.1 29.2 29.5 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 148 148 146 145 148 155 159 160 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.4 -54.3 -53.6 -54.2 -53.7 -54.2 -54.0 -54.2 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 500-300 MB RH 69 71 67 65 63 64 60 53 55 45 44 39 39 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 0 0 -2 -6 -8 -6 -6 -9 -6 0 7 12 850 MB VORT 7 8 0 2 6 14 16 4 -7 -45 -79 -110 -142 LAND (KM) 1565 1487 1416 1346 1290 1175 1136 1052 903 676 434 422 573 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.1 12.4 12.8 13.2 14.0 15.1 16.2 17.4 18.8 20.4 22.1 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 39.3 40.4 41.5 42.8 44.1 46.9 49.9 53.0 56.1 59.3 62.2 64.7 66.3 HEAT CONTENT 26 26 29 33 32 37 67 90 80 70 77 61 63 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 596 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 65 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 25. 28. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 16. 20. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 10. 15. 20. 23. 24. 26. 28. 30. 31. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/27/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.63 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.67 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 122.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.87 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.79 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 89.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.87 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 18.8 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.63 Scaled RI index= 5.16 Prob of RI= 42.2% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.1%)