* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/27/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 32 38 46 54 60 65 70 73 71 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 32 38 46 54 60 65 70 73 71 SHEAR (KTS) 21 22 20 11 11 12 12 11 10 10 19 18 21 SHEAR DIR 244 236 244 250 218 233 234 259 347 18 39 64 72 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.5 27.9 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 155 157 157 159 159 157 157 155 149 141 139 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.6 -54.7 -54.9 -54.9 -54.7 -54.8 -54.5 -54.3 -53.7 -52.9 -52.3 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 11 12 12 12 12 12 11 11 11 10 500-300 MB RH 45 46 44 51 53 50 47 51 44 44 46 45 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 2 12 7 5 0 14 4 13 -4 -14 -13 -2 850 MB VORT 47 32 25 34 25 19 21 16 5 -21 -65 -80 -14 LAND (KM) 1247 1169 1096 1040 991 932 925 949 999 1084 1138 900 692 LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.7 22.1 22.6 23.0 23.9 24.8 25.8 26.9 28.1 29.5 31.0 33.0 LONG(DEG W) 54.2 55.1 56.0 56.8 57.6 59.0 60.1 61.2 62.5 64.1 66.0 67.8 69.0 HEAT CONTENT 53 61 54 49 46 43 45 45 31 32 19 17 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 835 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 14 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 23. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -5. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 8. 14. 22. 31. 36. 42. 46. 48. 48. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 2. 4. 7. 13. 21. 29. 35. 40. 45. 48. 46. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/27/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.64 SST (C) : Value: 28.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.75 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 130.4 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.94 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.50 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 7.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 4.37 Prob of RI= 16.2% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)