* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * IRWIN 08/27/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 32 32 32 32 31 29 28 27 26 24 21 V (KT) LAND 35 33 32 32 32 32 31 29 28 27 26 24 21 SHEAR (KTS) 12 14 14 14 15 25 21 25 21 22 15 16 14 SHEAR DIR 115 117 118 121 117 128 126 125 110 114 106 108 88 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.9 26.0 25.8 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 144 142 139 135 131 128 125 125 126 124 123 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -51.2 -50.9 -51.2 -51.1 -51.1 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 500-300 MB RH 56 50 48 46 39 34 26 22 21 19 17 18 20 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 2 0 0 -1 -3 1 5 0 3 5 5 0 850 MB VORT 51 50 48 49 49 34 35 32 14 18 7 9 6 LAND (KM) 686 734 790 852 921 1019 1092 1205 1357 1531 1680 1836 1983 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.5 17.5 17.6 17.7 17.6 17.5 17.4 17.5 17.5 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 113.0 113.9 114.8 115.8 116.7 118.4 119.6 121.0 122.8 124.8 127.0 129.0 130.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 659 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 12 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 40 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 1. 3. 2. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -14. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRWIN 8/27/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.9 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.22 SST (C) : Value: 27.6 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.26 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 107.9 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.72 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.2 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.10 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 25.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 25.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.15 Scaled RI index= 1.92 Prob of RI= 2.2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)