* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * KATRINA 08/28/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 104 110 116 123 130 131 126 117 108 97 82 67 V (KT) LAND 100 104 110 116 123 130 85 46 33 29 29 30 30 SHEAR (KTS) 7 9 5 1 5 8 22 27 30 24 33 42 50 SHEAR DIR 354 336 335 225 192 199 188 210 217 223 218 226 218 SST (C) 30.2 30.2 30.3 30.4 30.6 30.9 30.7 28.9 27.4 26.5 25.9 24.3 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 155 134 124 118 105 94 200 MB T (C) -49.7 -50.1 -49.4 -48.5 -48.6 -47.3 -47.0 -46.8 -46.3 -46.5 -47.0 -46.2 -45.5 TH_E DEV (C) 16 14 13 13 14 10 9 4 7 1 5 0 1 500-300 MB RH 65 59 60 66 67 67 68 61 45 33 27 23 14 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -2 1 1 3 4 3 -6 8 10 1 -3 5 850 MB VORT 77 74 89 118 128 154 149 143 127 119 99 111 113 LAND (KM) 320 384 427 360 271 57 -60 -279 -511 -768 -677 -519 -459 LAT (DEG N) 24.9 25.2 25.4 26.1 26.7 28.7 30.8 33.0 35.3 37.6 39.8 42.0 44.3 LONG(DEG W) 85.9 86.6 87.3 88.1 88.8 89.7 89.6 89.2 88.2 86.2 83.2 80.0 76.5 HEAT CONTENT 100 112 110 121 126 52 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 614 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 31 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 100 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 5.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 15. 11. 5. -2. -10. -20. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -12. -16. -20. -24. -28. -32. -36. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 17. 19. 21. 22. 22. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 16. 23. 24. 19. 12. 3. -7. -20. -34. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 10. 16. 23. 30. 31. 26. 17. 8. -3. -18. -33. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KATRINA 8/28/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.92 SST (C) : Value: 30.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.99 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 65.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.35 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.51 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 1.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 5.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 5.47 Prob of RI= 52.7% is 4.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)