* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * IRWIN 08/28/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 29 29 31 32 31 30 31 31 29 26 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 29 29 31 32 31 30 31 31 29 26 SHEAR (KTS) 12 13 14 15 20 20 22 23 24 18 17 13 16 SHEAR DIR 108 110 112 112 118 133 116 120 104 110 102 98 94 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.4 26.2 26.5 26.6 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 145 144 142 140 137 135 133 130 128 131 132 130 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -51.5 -51.4 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 500-300 MB RH 52 47 47 40 38 33 24 26 24 24 21 22 20 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 1 0 -5 -3 -1 0 8 1 5 0 0 3 850 MB VORT 48 45 45 48 39 36 29 22 15 8 -4 -2 -8 LAND (KM) 752 805 863 905 951 1052 1151 1237 1328 1464 1661 1774 1872 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 17.2 17.1 17.2 17.2 17.1 17.0 16.9 16.9 16.8 16.6 16.7 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 113.9 114.7 115.5 116.2 116.8 118.2 119.6 120.7 121.9 123.5 125.7 127.4 128.8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 619 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 7 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 3. 4. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 4. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. -1. -3. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRWIN 8/28/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.0 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.15 SST (C) : Value: 27.6 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.27 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 113.1 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.77 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.6 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.12 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 5.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 17.7 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.49 Scaled RI index= 2.27 Prob of RI= 2.6% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)