* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * KATRINA 08/28/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 125 131 136 140 141 138 131 120 102 91 77 62 47 V (KT) LAND 125 131 136 140 141 104 56 36 30 29 30 30 30 SHEAR (KTS) 12 7 2 8 12 19 30 33 34 31 33 37 43 SHEAR DIR 320 344 133 210 242 205 224 227 246 233 236 222 240 SST (C) 30.2 30.3 30.5 30.6 30.8 31.0 29.6 27.6 26.3 25.7 24.4 19.9 14.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 165 137 122 116 106 84 73 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -49.3 -47.9 -48.5 -47.9 -46.7 -47.1 -46.9 -47.0 -47.5 -47.7 -47.1 -46.9 TH_E DEV (C) 16 13 14 14 12 10 6 7 2 5 1 3 0 500-300 MB RH 59 59 66 71 66 68 60 51 38 33 33 35 35 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -3 -1 2 0 0 0 2 9 19 -2 0 850 MB VORT 74 88 120 128 113 149 126 133 106 137 119 127 109 LAND (KM) 401 418 344 224 114 -6 -205 -478 -776 -627 -395 -290 -205 LAT (DEG N) 25.2 25.7 26.1 27.1 28.1 30.0 32.2 35.0 38.0 40.3 41.7 44.1 47.0 LONG(DEG W) 86.8 87.6 88.4 89.0 89.6 90.0 89.6 88.2 85.8 82.5 78.5 74.0 69.1 HEAT CONTENT 114 109 123 117 61 25 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 628 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 14 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 100 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 9. 11. 9. 0. -12. -25. -38. -51. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -13. -16. -17. -15. -12. -7. -3. PERSISTENCE 4. 4. 3. 2. -2. -1. 0. -2. -1. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -4. -5. -9. -13. -17. -21. -24. -27. -31. -34. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 20. 22. 23. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 13. 10. 2. -9. -26. -38. -50. -64. -79. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 11. 15. 16. 13. 6. -5. -23. -34. -47. -63. -78. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KATRINA 8/28/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 25.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.86 SST (C) : Value: 30.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 1.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 40.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.12 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.52 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 1.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 8.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 4.49 Prob of RI= 19.1% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.1%)