* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/28/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 34 39 46 51 57 59 61 64 64 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 34 39 46 51 57 59 61 64 64 SHEAR (KTS) 20 22 19 15 16 21 15 17 16 22 14 11 16 SHEAR DIR 61 46 50 45 39 50 28 42 26 26 41 13 25 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.6 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 148 148 148 151 157 160 160 164 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.1 -53.7 -53.8 -54.2 -53.8 -54.4 -53.9 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 13 13 13 13 13 500-300 MB RH 71 67 65 66 66 68 61 59 53 43 40 43 43 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -3 -2 -5 0 0 18 0 0 850 MB VORT 15 11 1 -4 -11 -7 0 3 -26 -55 -96 -111 -101 LAND (KM) 1269 1219 1172 1118 1080 1056 986 861 807 549 313 206 226 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.7 13.0 13.4 13.7 14.6 15.4 16.6 17.6 18.6 19.5 20.3 21.0 LONG(DEG W) 43.4 44.5 45.6 46.9 48.1 50.6 53.2 55.7 58.1 60.5 63.0 65.5 68.0 HEAT CONTENT 31 33 40 43 45 76 89 80 83 81 76 69 76 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 427 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 94 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 27. 30. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 4. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 21. 27. 32. 35. 37. 39. 40. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 6. 9. 14. 21. 26. 32. 34. 37. 39. 39. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/28/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 18.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.60 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.68 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 123.2 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.88 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.72 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.13 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 24.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.45 Scaled RI index= 4.17 Prob of RI= 13.8% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)