* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * IRWIN 08/28/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 23 23 23 26 27 27 26 27 27 26 22 V (KT) LAND 25 23 23 23 23 26 27 27 26 27 27 26 22 SHEAR (KTS) 12 13 16 22 25 21 25 25 27 20 18 14 15 SHEAR DIR 110 108 109 115 127 123 119 118 124 116 124 103 115 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.2 26.1 26.1 25.8 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 143 141 139 137 135 131 128 127 127 124 118 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -52.3 -51.9 -51.1 -51.3 -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 5 5 500-300 MB RH 44 42 38 36 33 26 21 21 21 21 18 16 13 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 -3 -2 -1 -1 -1 4 5 3 3 1 1 850 MB VORT 45 43 46 41 38 37 35 12 11 0 0 -9 7 LAND (KM) 797 850 906 955 1005 1098 1186 1289 1416 1534 1637 1734 1842 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.1 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 16.9 17.0 17.3 17.7 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 114.5 115.3 116.0 116.7 117.3 118.8 120.1 121.5 123.0 124.5 126.2 127.9 129.6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 694 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 1 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 35 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -8. -7. -5. -4. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 8. 6. 5. 5. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 7. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -2. -2. -2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. -3. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRWIN 8/28/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.31 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 17.5 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 27.5 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.25 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 117.2 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.82 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 68.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.11 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 6.1 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 0.99 Scaled RI index= 2.48 Prob of RI= 2.9% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.0%)