* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * KATRINA 08/28/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 140 147 151 153 152 141 128 114 93 79 65 46 30 V (KT) LAND 140 147 151 153 152 86 46 33 29 29 30 30 30 SHEAR (KTS) 11 3 6 9 11 26 32 33 25 31 32 40 39 SHEAR DIR 320 325 186 225 220 205 222 223 233 227 224 213 206 SST (C) 30.3 30.5 30.6 30.8 31.0 30.5 28.5 27.1 26.2 25.2 23.9 16.8 12.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 165 149 131 121 112 102 76 71 200 MB T (C) -49.5 -48.3 -48.6 -47.8 -47.2 -47.1 -46.9 -46.2 -46.4 -46.7 -46.0 -45.0 -44.1 TH_E DEV (C) 14 15 14 12 9 10 3 6 2 5 1 1 0 500-300 MB RH 57 64 69 65 68 65 58 49 35 26 28 19 17 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 10 -2 -1 -4 2 23 16 -4 -4 0 850 MB VORT 81 116 124 124 143 135 139 133 145 104 106 126 206 LAND (KM) 409 315 225 116 28 -90 -328 -618 -748 -538 -342 -263 -37 LAT (DEG N) 25.7 26.4 27.1 28.1 29.0 31.1 33.6 36.2 38.7 41.0 43.0 45.5 48.4 LONG(DEG W) 87.7 88.3 88.9 89.3 89.7 89.6 88.7 87.0 84.6 81.1 76.6 72.2 67.7 HEAT CONTENT 111 116 114 62 51 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 667 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 27 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 105 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 6.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 3. -10. -25. -40. -56. -73. -87. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -3. -4. -12. -20. -22. -22. -20. -16. -11. -5. PERSISTENCE 5. 4. 2. -1. -7. -6. -3. -6. -4. 0. -1. -2. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -14. -18. -22. -26. -30. -35. -40. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 20. 21. 23. 25. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 6. 9. 9. 8. -3. -17. -30. -50. -63. -77. -94.-110. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 7. 11. 13. 12. 1. -12. -26. -47. -61. -75. -94.-110. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KATRINA 8/28/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 35.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 8.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.86 SST (C) : Value: 30.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 1.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 25.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.53 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 1.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 6.2 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 4.39 Prob of RI= 16.6% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)