* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/28/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 36 43 52 59 65 70 71 74 76 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 36 43 52 59 65 70 71 74 76 SHEAR (KTS) 20 18 15 13 18 13 12 10 12 12 12 5 8 SHEAR DIR 62 64 65 47 46 53 40 37 33 30 26 46 23 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.7 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 149 152 157 160 162 162 165 165 165 165 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.0 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.0 -54.4 -54.1 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 14 13 500-300 MB RH 68 65 67 66 66 65 62 57 50 45 45 40 45 MO FLX (M/S/D) -1 0 0 0 -4 -1 -2 -5 0 -1 12 12 2 850 MB VORT 0 -3 -3 -15 -21 -16 -10 -26 -57 -76 -94 -89 -82 LAND (KM) 1121 1079 1050 1036 1025 1008 853 758 654 391 151 55 29 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.2 13.5 13.9 14.3 15.1 15.9 16.6 17.3 18.1 18.6 19.0 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 46.1 47.2 48.3 49.5 50.6 52.8 55.1 57.3 59.6 62.0 64.3 66.5 68.9 HEAT CONTENT 43 45 48 60 75 89 83 91 77 108 89 86 88 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 314 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 56 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 16. 19. 24. 27. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -14. -16. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 7. 5. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 25. 32. 38. 43. 45. 48. 51. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 27. 34. 40. 45. 46. 49. 51. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/28/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.64 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.70 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 124.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.89 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.70 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.37 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.59 Scaled RI index= 4.60 Prob of RI= 21.8% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)