* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * INVEST 08/28/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 46 56 65 72 78 79 80 81 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 46 56 65 72 78 79 80 81 SHEAR (KTS) 17 18 16 10 7 9 9 9 9 13 25 17 16 SHEAR DIR 60 71 80 109 127 168 205 209 258 288 296 331 347 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 28.2 28.0 26.7 26.5 26.8 27.2 27.6 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 135 137 138 139 139 145 142 126 124 127 132 137 142 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -54.3 -54.7 -54.6 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -54.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 500-300 MB RH 59 58 61 68 68 72 70 70 68 63 62 57 56 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -4 -1 1 2 0 2 0 -4 -2 -1 20 2 850 MB VORT 95 114 120 111 118 122 82 73 64 64 45 24 15 LAND (KM) 429 459 511 599 703 956 1286 1687 2113 2194 2212 2214 2031 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.4 9.8 10.3 10.8 12.1 13.8 16.0 18.3 20.8 22.7 23.9 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 19.0 19.9 20.8 22.0 23.1 25.9 29.4 33.2 37.0 40.4 43.1 45.2 47.2 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 14 15 14 13 17 5 6 11 17 24 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 425 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -6 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 23. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 4. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 21. 31. 40. 47. 53. 54. 55. 56. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 11. 21. 31. 40. 47. 53. 54. 55. 56. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/28/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.71 SST (C) : Value: 27.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.55 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 112.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.78 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 83.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.86 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)