* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * IRWIN 08/28/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 25 26 28 29 27 26 27 27 25 21 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 25 26 28 29 27 26 27 27 25 21 SHEAR (KTS) 12 15 24 29 26 28 28 32 25 24 14 13 N/A SHEAR DIR 110 101 104 122 127 113 111 108 119 120 126 104 9999 SST (C) 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.7 26.3 26.4 26.2 25.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 142 140 139 138 137 133 129 130 128 121 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.1 -51.6 -51.2 -52.0 -52.0 -51.7 -51.3 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 N/A 500-300 MB RH 44 38 34 33 31 23 25 23 25 21 19 16 N/A MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 -3 -4 0 0 4 5 7 0 0 2 1 N/A 850 MB VORT 44 38 34 38 36 27 19 1 0 -13 -11 -17 N/A LAND (KM) 860 912 967 1008 1051 1146 1264 1382 1511 1642 1741 1830 N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.9 16.8 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.6 16.4 16.4 16.6 16.9 17.3 17.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.2 115.9 116.5 117.1 117.6 119.0 120.5 122.1 123.9 125.8 127.6 129.2 N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 255/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 702 (MEAN=601) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 0 (MEAN= 18) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 30 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 4.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=64.4) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 20. 22. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -13. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 10. 8. 7. 5. 5. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 3. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 7. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 2. 1. 2. 2. 0. -4. ** 2005 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) IRWIN 8/28/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled value: 0.47 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 21.2 Range: 17.3 to 1.9 Scaled value: 0.00 SST (C) : Value: 27.5 Range: 26.7 to 30.1 Scaled value: 0.22 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 116.4 Range: 38.3 to 135.0 Scaled value: 0.81 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.4 Range: 66.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.15 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 4.5 Range: 28.9 to 5.9 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 2.66 Prob of RI= 3.1% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.0%)