* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * KATRINA 08/28/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 150 154 158 159 156 142 123 102 80 60 41 24 DIS V (KT) LAND 150 154 158 159 133 58 37 30 30 30 30 30 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 4 5 8 16 21 31 33 31 31 38 39 44 35 SHEAR DIR 290 202 207 195 194 221 226 237 238 224 220 217 227 SST (C) 30.5 30.7 30.9 31.0 30.9 29.0 26.9 25.9 25.4 23.1 17.7 13.1 8.1 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 157 128 118 114 98 78 72 69 200 MB T (C) -48.5 -49.1 -48.4 -47.3 -46.9 -47.1 -47.0 -46.7 -47.3 -46.9 -46.1 -45.0 -45.5 TH_E DEV (C) 15 14 12 9 10 5 6 2 5 1 3 0 0 500-300 MB RH 61 70 66 65 70 58 46 32 23 24 21 18 31 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 0 1 -3 -7 0 0 18 33 -13 1 8 9 850 MB VORT 108 117 105 135 142 119 135 101 112 107 114 171 100 LAND (KM) 305 200 107 15 15 -277 -611 -833 -667 -543 -520 -249 -422 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 27.3 28.2 29.2 30.2 32.9 36.2 38.9 41.1 43.6 46.6 50.1 53.9 LONG(DEG W) 88.7 89.2 89.7 89.9 90.0 89.4 88.0 85.7 82.7 79.2 75.3 71.3 67.2 HEAT CONTENT 130 95 55 48 25 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 619 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 63 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 140 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 3.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 4. -7. -24. -43. -62. -81.-100.-113. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -4. -8. -20. -28. -29. -28. -25. -21. -14. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. -1. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -22. -26. -29. -34. -38. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 20. 23. 23. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 2. -13. -31. -52. -72. -91.-110.-125.-138. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 9. 6. -8. -27. -48. -70. -90.-109.-126.-138. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KATRINA 8/28/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.80 SST (C) : Value: 30.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 1.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 15.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.59 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.99 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 3.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 5.27 Prob of RI= 45.8% is 3.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)