* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * THIRTEEN 08/28/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 39 46 53 57 59 61 62 61 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 39 46 53 57 59 61 62 61 SHEAR (KTS) 16 10 14 17 14 13 9 7 6 15 19 23 22 SHEAR DIR 35 24 3 10 30 343 332 327 44 37 69 97 92 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 145 148 151 154 155 157 159 159 157 157 157 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.1 -54.5 -54.5 -54.8 -54.5 -54.3 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 13 14 13 13 13 13 500-300 MB RH 60 65 65 64 66 61 59 51 44 41 38 37 37 MO FLX (M/S/D) -9 -4 -4 -1 0 -2 -1 0 2 4 8 4 -6 850 MB VORT 9 4 -10 -18 -21 -25 -25 -66 -109 -114 -132 -133 -132 LAND (KM) 1285 1265 1257 1268 1270 1151 1092 938 860 856 934 970 979 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.4 17.0 18.1 19.6 21.0 22.7 24.3 25.8 26.5 26.9 LONG(DEG W) 46.3 47.6 48.8 50.0 51.1 53.4 55.4 57.2 58.9 60.5 61.5 62.2 63.1 HEAT CONTENT 33 39 53 64 79 85 67 56 46 50 45 35 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 304/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 685 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 58 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -20. -22. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 8. 14. 21. 28. 33. 35. 37. 38. 38. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 8. 14. 21. 28. 32. 34. 36. 37. 36. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) THIRTEEN 8/28/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.71 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.65 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 120.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.86 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.62 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 41.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.29 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 29.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.29 Scaled RI index= 4.12 Prob of RI= 13.2% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12.1%)