* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * INVEST 08/28/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 40 49 57 63 68 74 76 80 83 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 40 49 57 63 68 74 76 80 83 SHEAR (KTS) 12 9 3 7 8 16 18 20 16 14 11 7 15 SHEAR DIR 82 81 143 208 200 225 233 234 236 261 332 342 29 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.2 26.9 26.5 26.8 27.0 27.4 27.8 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 139 141 143 145 128 124 127 129 134 139 143 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.4 -54.8 -54.7 -54.1 -54.6 -54.1 -54.5 -54.0 -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 7 6 7 7 8 9 500-300 MB RH 59 60 66 69 67 76 72 75 62 61 59 55 57 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 -1 0 1 6 4 2 850 MB VORT 125 113 96 109 103 92 60 64 53 49 43 47 45 LAND (KM) 435 505 592 725 836 1137 1546 1963 2159 2132 2157 2095 1988 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.7 12.3 13.7 15.4 17.3 19.5 21.4 22.9 23.9 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 20.1 21.1 22.1 23.5 24.8 28.0 31.9 35.7 39.3 42.3 44.7 46.4 47.7 HEAT CONTENT 12 15 15 11 11 19 5 5 11 16 22 26 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 473 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 13 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 19. 22. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 24. 32. 38. 43. 49. 51. 55. 58. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 15. 24. 32. 38. 43. 49. 51. 55. 58. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/28/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.86 SST (C) : Value: 27.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.58 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 115.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.81 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.78 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)