* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * KATRINA 08/29/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 140 141 144 145 143 130 113 94 76 56 36 22 DIS V (KT) LAND 140 141 144 112 77 43 32 29 30 30 30 30 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 4 9 9 16 25 26 31 29 26 39 42 43 48 SHEAR DIR 255 239 194 180 199 226 229 241 239 238 236 244 254 SST (C) 30.7 30.8 30.9 30.7 30.0 27.9 26.8 26.1 24.0 18.1 12.6 9.1 5.9 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 165 141 127 120 103 79 71 69 68 200 MB T (C) -49.2 -48.5 -47.8 -47.5 -47.1 -47.4 -46.6 -46.8 -46.9 -45.8 -46.0 -47.4 -45.7 TH_E DEV (C) 15 12 10 10 9 3 6 1 3 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 67 69 69 71 67 60 49 41 29 35 40 36 30 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 3 0 3 0 3 3 6 8 -3 11 10 8 850 MB VORT 97 105 127 135 125 118 118 119 130 163 145 123 135 LAND (KM) 212 100 4 -24 -156 -433 -702 -648 -472 -431 -116 -277 -17 LAT (DEG N) 27.2 28.2 29.2 30.5 31.8 34.6 37.0 39.4 42.3 45.8 49.8 52.8 54.4 LONG(DEG W) 89.1 89.4 89.6 89.5 89.3 88.1 85.9 82.9 79.2 74.7 69.5 64.1 58.7 HEAT CONTENT 105 54 42 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 335/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 666 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 4 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 150 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 7. 2. -8. -24. -41. -61. -79. -96.-107. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -4. -9. -19. -24. -24. -21. -18. -13. -5. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -14. -18. -22. -26. -30. -34. -37. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -21. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 19. 22. 23. 24. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 2. 0. -13. -31. -48. -65. -85.-104.-117.-127. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 5. 3. -10. -27. -46. -64. -84.-104.-118.-129. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KATRINA 8/29/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.35 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 12.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.75 SST (C) : Value: 30.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 1.00 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 25.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.63 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 1.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 5.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 4.73 Prob of RI= 26.4% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)