* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * THIRTEEN 08/29/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 44 50 53 55 57 60 61 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 38 44 50 53 55 57 60 61 SHEAR (KTS) 13 14 18 16 14 13 10 6 7 9 11 16 17 SHEAR DIR 32 21 16 27 3 357 344 3 25 14 83 90 110 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 145 148 149 152 155 157 160 162 162 162 162 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.2 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.7 -54.6 -54.7 -54.1 -54.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 12 13 14 15 14 14 13 13 500-300 MB RH 60 60 54 59 56 53 50 44 35 36 35 40 38 MO FLX (M/S/D) -7 -3 -1 0 -3 -2 1 0 0 4 4 4 -1 850 MB VORT 0 -7 -10 -17 -18 -25 -62 -104 -137 -165 -130 -105 -100 LAND (KM) 1318 1324 1331 1334 1309 1183 1122 947 793 699 699 681 697 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.5 18.5 19.5 20.2 20.8 21.6 22.5 23.5 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 46.9 47.8 48.7 49.9 51.0 53.4 55.1 56.9 58.6 60.0 60.7 62.2 64.4 HEAT CONTENT 34 46 51 64 73 82 68 67 68 61 58 43 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 13 CX,CY: -9/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 737 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 48 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 28. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -17. -21. -23. -24. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 19. 25. 28. 30. 33. 36. 38. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 19. 25. 28. 30. 32. 35. 36. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) THIRTEEN 8/29/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 15.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.69 SST (C) : Value: 28.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.64 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 120.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.85 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.53 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.41 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 30.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.24 Scaled RI index= 4.06 Prob of RI= 12.5% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)