* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * INVEST 08/29/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 48 54 59 63 67 72 77 81 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 48 54 59 63 67 72 77 81 SHEAR (KTS) 6 5 6 8 13 22 19 24 20 16 3 1 8 SHEAR DIR 66 102 178 190 191 209 205 218 209 235 301 174 122 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 27.0 26.5 26.7 26.9 27.2 27.6 28.2 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 142 143 145 129 124 126 128 132 137 145 151 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.7 -54.4 -53.7 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 8 10 500-300 MB RH 57 65 69 66 71 69 69 68 61 56 48 43 35 MO FLX (M/S/D) -2 -1 0 0 3 7 10 2 4 1 4 3 1 850 MB VORT 118 123 118 113 99 70 67 65 81 75 68 62 38 LAND (KM) 489 626 760 916 1079 1460 1831 2160 2107 2090 2100 1872 1672 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.5 13.0 13.5 14.0 15.3 16.8 18.3 20.1 21.7 23.1 24.0 25.0 LONG(DEG W) 21.3 22.8 24.3 25.9 27.5 31.1 34.5 37.8 40.8 43.6 46.0 48.7 51.2 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 11 11 20 5 4 9 13 19 23 33 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 529 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 40 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 9. 12. 15. 18. 21. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. 0. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 16. 23. 29. 34. 38. 42. 47. 52. 56. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 16. 23. 29. 34. 38. 42. 47. 52. 56. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/29/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 7.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.87 SST (C) : Value: 28.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.62 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 117.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.83 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)