* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * KATRINA 08/29/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 140 140 140 137 130 114 94 77 58 37 21 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 140 140 123 76 55 36 30 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 13 10 19 30 34 29 31 31 35 41 42 46 49 SHEAR DIR 236 211 173 194 218 231 242 243 241 232 238 241 253 SST (C) 30.8 31.0 30.9 30.0 28.8 27.1 26.0 24.7 21.0 14.8 10.6 7.1 5.3 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 165 154 131 119 108 88 73 70 68 68 200 MB T (C) -48.4 -47.8 -47.5 -47.1 -47.3 -46.8 -46.5 -47.1 -46.8 -46.3 -46.5 -47.4 -47.7 TH_E DEV (C) 13 10 11 10 6 6 2 4 1 1 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 68 68 67 66 61 52 43 33 30 35 34 33 37 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 3 10 10 -4 9 16 11 850 MB VORT 114 133 128 124 110 126 107 136 138 152 135 68 59 LAND (KM) 114 12 2 -153 -293 -615 -773 -572 -498 -300 -203 -243 64 LAT (DEG N) 28.1 29.2 30.3 31.8 33.2 36.2 39.0 41.9 45.0 48.2 51.6 54.2 55.5 LONG(DEG W) 89.6 89.8 89.9 89.5 89.0 87.2 84.6 80.9 76.3 72.0 68.2 63.7 59.0 HEAT CONTENT 55 46 25 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 335/ 10 CX,CY: -3/ 9 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 661 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 71 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 145 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. -2. -14. -31. -51. -72. -90.-106.-117. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -5. -12. -19. -29. -34. -32. -28. -24. -18. -8. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -3. -5. -6. -10. -15. -19. -23. -27. -31. -34. -37. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -22. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 20. 22. 23. 23. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -5. -12. -27. -47. -64. -82.-102.-118.-130.-139. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. -3. -10. -26. -46. -63. -82.-103.-119.-132.-141. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KATRINA 8/29/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 21.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.53 SST (C) : Value: 30.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.98 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 22.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.00 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.55 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.98 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 7.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 1.00 Scaled RI index= 4.57 Prob of RI= 21.3% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)