* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * THIRTEEN 08/29/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 31 35 41 47 53 56 58 61 64 67 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 31 35 41 47 53 56 58 61 64 67 SHEAR (KTS) 18 17 15 8 13 8 9 2 2 9 12 21 12 SHEAR DIR 21 13 24 358 330 334 310 350 337 45 77 90 122 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 149 151 151 155 157 159 160 160 159 159 159 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 12 12 13 14 14 14 13 12 12 500-300 MB RH 57 59 56 56 52 55 49 46 35 37 40 44 44 MO FLX (M/S/D) -7 -3 -3 -2 -3 0 0 0 0 3 -1 -1 1 850 MB VORT -8 -15 -25 -24 -35 -42 -69 -108 -141 -155 -106 -83 -54 LAND (KM) 1322 1352 1354 1301 1259 1149 984 881 820 809 822 837 887 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.2 17.8 18.4 18.9 20.0 21.2 22.3 23.1 23.9 24.6 25.3 26.2 LONG(DEG W) 48.9 49.8 50.7 51.8 52.8 54.9 56.8 58.4 59.7 60.7 61.5 62.5 63.7 HEAT CONTENT 53 62 67 73 78 65 52 47 48 54 50 45 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 15 CX,CY: -11/ 9 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 713 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 29 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -14. -18. -22. -23. -24. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 21. 28. 32. 34. 37. 40. 44. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 10. 16. 22. 28. 31. 33. 36. 39. 42. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) THIRTEEN 8/29/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 14.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.71 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.68 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 123.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.88 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.50 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.36 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.1 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.39 Scaled RI index= 4.22 Prob of RI= 14.4% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)