* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * INVEST 08/29/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 39 44 48 51 56 62 67 72 76 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 39 44 48 51 56 62 67 72 76 SHEAR (KTS) 3 11 13 17 21 23 26 25 15 8 4 7 2 SHEAR DIR 245 246 242 229 223 225 219 219 218 216 162 118 234 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.5 26.6 26.6 26.9 27.1 27.3 27.7 28.3 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 143 142 135 125 125 128 131 133 138 146 151 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.4 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -53.5 -53.9 -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -54.1 -53.8 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 10 11 500-300 MB RH 65 65 62 65 69 66 70 60 58 53 47 39 35 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 0 0 1 6 8 1 9 6 8 4 1 0 850 MB VORT 117 111 111 100 83 55 57 67 62 70 71 62 41 LAND (KM) 616 762 923 1104 1289 1677 2060 2091 2037 2028 1983 1807 1672 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.1 13.7 14.3 14.8 16.2 17.5 19.1 20.5 21.7 22.7 23.8 24.8 LONG(DEG W) 22.7 24.4 26.0 27.8 29.5 33.1 36.6 39.8 42.5 44.9 47.1 49.3 51.1 HEAT CONTENT 12 10 12 18 12 4 6 13 15 22 21 34 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 290/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 5 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 523 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 59 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 21. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 19. 23. 26. 31. 37. 42. 47. 51. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 14. 19. 23. 26. 31. 37. 42. 47. 51. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/29/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 13.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.73 SST (C) : Value: 27.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.59 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 115.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.81 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.55 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)