* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * KATRINA 08/29/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 117 116 111 105 92 74 58 43 29 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 120 89 63 47 38 30 30 30 30 30 30 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 12 14 28 34 36 34 34 34 35 37 39 41 49 SHEAR DIR 250 193 195 214 227 230 248 241 238 232 231 249 249 SST (C) 31.3 31.1 29.9 28.4 27.2 25.4 23.9 21.2 15.9 12.0 8.4 5.2 6.7 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 165 148 132 114 102 88 75 71 69 68 68 200 MB T (C) -48.2 -47.4 -47.5 -47.7 -47.9 -47.2 -47.0 -47.0 -46.2 -46.0 -46.3 -46.5 -45.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 10 5 2 4 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 69 70 69 63 59 51 40 27 33 37 38 26 26 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 12 -2 -3 0 8 23 8 -5 10 13 0 -2 850 MB VORT 109 106 107 93 96 94 112 163 192 189 196 136 85 LAND (KM) 1 -55 -200 -349 -522 -790 -637 -541 -495 -147 -270 -46 282 LAT (DEG N) 29.5 30.9 32.2 33.8 35.4 38.4 41.5 44.3 47.0 49.7 52.6 54.9 56.0 LONG(DEG W) 89.5 89.4 89.2 88.7 88.1 85.6 82.1 78.3 74.3 70.0 65.5 60.4 54.8 HEAT CONTENT 27 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 13 CX,CY: 0/ 13 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 673 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 57 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 140 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 5. 4. -3. -15. -31. -48. -66. -80. -92.-100. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -5. -11. -17. -25. -27. -24. -20. -13. -7. 2. 8. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -3. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -3. -5. -6. -10. -14. -18. -22. -27. -30. -34. -38. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -21. -25. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 12. 16. 20. 24. 26. 26. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -9. -15. -29. -47. -62. -76. -90.-101.-109.-117. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -4. -9. -15. -28. -46. -62. -77. -91.-102.-110.-118. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KATRINA 8/29/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -20.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 24.9 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.44 SST (C) : Value: 29.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.87 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 34.9 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.07 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.56 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.98 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 10.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.92 Scaled RI index= 3.84 Prob of RI= 9.8% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)