* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * THIRTEEN 08/29/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 49 55 57 58 61 64 68 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 42 49 55 57 58 61 64 68 SHEAR (KTS) 17 13 13 19 18 9 2 1 7 12 16 18 11 SHEAR DIR 2 3 317 314 321 308 322 223 82 86 74 104 115 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 154 154 154 155 157 157 159 159 160 162 162 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.8 -54.1 -54.0 -53.3 -53.5 -53.4 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 12 13 13 13 12 12 12 11 500-300 MB RH 57 54 59 54 60 60 51 43 39 39 40 44 46 MO FLX (M/S/D) -7 -2 0 7 5 6 0 -1 -3 1 1 0 0 850 MB VORT -8 -10 -10 -23 -28 -36 -59 -101 -134 -120 -95 -62 -17 LAND (KM) 1428 1379 1343 1322 1227 1061 963 939 947 971 1017 1067 1107 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.7 19.4 20.2 20.9 22.2 23.4 24.2 24.9 25.8 27.0 27.7 28.1 LONG(DEG W) 50.0 51.1 52.2 53.3 54.3 56.4 58.2 59.2 59.9 60.8 62.3 63.0 63.1 HEAT CONTENT 60 55 58 55 54 51 46 44 44 44 30 25 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 310/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 10 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 770 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 7 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -17. -19. -21. -21. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 22. 29. 31. 34. 37. 40. 44. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 24. 30. 32. 33. 36. 39. 43. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) THIRTEEN 8/29/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 16.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.66 SST (C) : Value: 28.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.73 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 127.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.92 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 72.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.50 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 76.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.71 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.38 Scaled RI index= 4.60 Prob of RI= 21.9% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12.1%)