* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/29/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 39 45 57 68 76 82 87 91 95 96 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 39 45 57 68 76 82 87 91 95 96 SHEAR (KTS) 4 4 7 7 6 4 7 10 5 8 6 1 9 SHEAR DIR 154 140 122 143 204 184 217 207 208 181 275 141 354 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.2 27.8 27.4 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.2 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 151 152 151 145 139 134 133 131 129 132 134 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 8 9 8 500-300 MB RH 56 63 64 65 66 63 70 66 65 58 49 43 46 MO FLX (M/S/D) 0 1 0 1 2 0 2 2 10 3 2 2 8 850 MB VORT 111 110 98 91 88 61 41 44 52 56 30 2 -29 LAND (KM) 1458 1548 1626 1706 1710 1797 1859 1825 1851 1942 2090 2293 2347 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.7 10.1 10.7 11.2 12.7 13.9 15.3 16.8 18.8 21.2 23.9 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 29.8 30.8 31.7 32.8 33.8 35.7 37.5 39.1 40.4 41.6 42.7 43.9 44.5 HEAT CONTENT 30 26 27 27 23 15 16 17 20 15 17 19 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 24 CX,CY: -23/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 532 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 37 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 16. 19. 23. 25. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 16. 28. 39. 48. 56. 63. 67. 72. 73. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 14. 20. 32. 43. 51. 57. 62. 66. 70. 71. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/29/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 5.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.92 SST (C) : Value: 28.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.70 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 125.0 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.90 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 81.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.78 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 90.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.88 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.71 Scaled RI index= 5.60 Prob of RI= 56.7% is 4.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)