* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * KATRINA 08/29/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 75 70 66 63 56 46 37 34 32 30 27 21 V (KT) LAND 85 60 45 37 33 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 SHEAR (KTS) 24 27 33 35 37 35 38 38 29 25 22 18 25 SHEAR DIR 208 203 215 226 233 251 253 243 227 218 203 214 230 SST (C) 30.9 29.6 28.3 27.0 25.9 24.0 21.6 17.2 12.6 10.0 9.0 7.5 6.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 165 146 129 118 103 90 77 71 69 69 68 68 200 MB T (C) -48.3 -47.9 -48.2 -48.4 -48.1 -47.9 -47.5 -46.6 -46.7 -45.7 -44.5 -44.7 -44.9 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 5 2 6 2 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 66 72 63 60 51 35 31 34 35 24 30 43 41 MO FLX (M/S/D) 9 -3 -13 7 7 9 21 -9 1 4 0 7 -1 850 MB VORT 104 98 80 92 99 90 152 170 199 236 215 200 177 LAND (KM) -90 -229 -362 -539 -735 -810 -613 -494 -161 -108 -231 -343 -144 LAT (DEG N) 31.1 32.5 33.8 35.6 37.3 40.7 43.4 46.1 48.9 50.9 52.1 53.5 54.4 LONG(DEG W) 89.6 89.4 89.2 88.3 87.4 84.6 80.4 75.4 70.2 67.4 66.9 64.7 61.7 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 16 CX,CY: 0/ 16 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 608 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 107 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 135 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 4. 3. -2. -10. -20. -31. -42. -51. -58. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -10. -6. -1. 6. 11. 16. 18. PERSISTENCE -11. -16. -18. -19. -19. -20. -21. -18. -13. -9. -3. 0. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -21. -25. -30. -35. -40. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -18. -22. -26. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 17. 22. 27. 30. 32. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -10. -15. -19. -22. -29. -39. -48. -51. -53. -55. -58. -64. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -10. -15. -19. -22. -29. -39. -48. -51. -53. -55. -58. -64. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KATRINA 8/29/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -50.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 31.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.28 SST (C) : Value: 28.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.66 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 59.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.30 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.54 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 100.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 1.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 9.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.97 Scaled RI index= 3.75 Prob of RI= 8.7% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12.1%)