* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/29/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 34 40 46 57 68 77 82 88 92 95 97 V (KT) LAND 25 29 34 40 46 57 68 77 82 88 92 95 97 SHEAR (KTS) 3 5 5 6 2 4 3 5 1 7 9 15 14 SHEAR DIR 154 148 131 200 138 235 163 170 150 326 15 332 350 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.5 28.3 27.6 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.8 28.1 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 152 149 146 137 132 131 131 133 139 143 146 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.2 -53.7 -52.8 -53.5 -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 500-300 MB RH 62 66 68 68 70 71 69 68 61 51 44 41 49 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 2 1 0 0 1 2 1 3 6 3 4 3 850 MB VORT 128 119 106 92 80 69 68 71 67 61 53 43 42 LAND (KM) 1598 1605 1621 1680 1751 1848 1869 1927 2018 2133 2073 1977 1901 LAT (DEG N) 9.2 9.9 10.5 11.5 12.4 14.5 16.6 18.7 20.9 22.9 24.5 25.6 26.4 LONG(DEG W) 32.2 33.2 34.2 35.2 36.2 38.1 39.9 41.7 43.5 45.2 46.8 48.2 49.4 HEAT CONTENT 30 32 29 22 20 15 17 14 18 21 27 28 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 270/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 0 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 606 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 52 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 14. 17. 20. 23. 26. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 18. 17. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 17. 28. 38. 48. 56. 63. 68. 72. 74. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 15. 21. 32. 43. 52. 57. 63. 67. 70. 72. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/29/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.96 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.69 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 124.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.89 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 79.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.73 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 95.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.94 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 12.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.86 Scaled RI index= 5.78 Prob of RI= 63.0% is 5.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)