* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/30/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 39 45 57 68 77 83 88 92 94 96 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 39 45 57 68 77 83 88 92 94 96 SHEAR (KTS) 2 5 4 2 3 1 6 3 6 14 13 22 14 SHEAR DIR 163 127 110 140 92 93 129 104 28 18 29 2 14 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.2 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.8 28.2 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 151 149 145 137 134 133 134 139 145 148 149 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 8 9 11 11 12 500-300 MB RH 61 63 64 66 68 71 69 64 53 48 44 42 42 MO FLX (M/S/D) 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 5 -3 0 5 850 MB VORT 118 110 94 76 69 56 57 50 49 49 35 17 0 LAND (KM) 1506 1531 1568 1654 1690 1687 1753 1821 1937 1935 1860 1773 1689 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 10.2 10.8 11.8 12.8 14.9 17.3 19.4 21.4 23.1 24.5 25.4 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 34.5 35.6 36.6 37.6 38.6 40.5 42.5 44.5 46.2 47.8 49.0 50.3 51.6 HEAT CONTENT 33 29 23 24 23 29 25 24 24 22 33 29 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 579 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 51 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 14. 17. 21. 24. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 18. 18. 17. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 17. 29. 40. 50. 57. 63. 68. 71. 73. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 14. 20. 32. 43. 52. 58. 63. 67. 69. 71. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/30/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 3.2 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.98 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.69 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 124.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.89 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.70 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 55.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.46 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 16.6 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.71 Scaled RI index= 5.14 Prob of RI= 41.4% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)