* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * KATRINA 08/30/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 38 37 36 36 34 33 32 35 36 32 25 V (KT) LAND 45 37 32 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 SHEAR (KTS) 30 33 38 36 39 39 39 28 26 21 16 11 21 SHEAR DIR 220 221 232 239 251 262 253 240 218 185 187 207 223 SST (C) 28.1 27.1 26.1 25.3 24.5 22.1 13.9 10.8 9.5 7.4 5.7 5.1 4.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 131 120 113 106 92 72 70 69 68 68 68 68 200 MB T (C) -48.1 -48.5 -48.4 -48.3 -48.2 -47.9 -47.8 -48.1 -45.5 -45.1 -45.2 -45.8 -45.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 2 6 5 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 64 59 54 50 41 40 51 53 42 47 56 63 61 MO FLX (M/S/D) -11 1 7 8 10 31 14 0 18 8 4 -1 2 850 MB VORT 63 83 95 94 98 152 142 140 229 224 221 222 205 LAND (KM) -381 -560 -719 -737 -638 -430 -255 -79 -344 -474 -351 -260 -86 LAT (DEG N) 34.1 35.7 37.3 38.9 40.4 43.6 47.2 50.1 52.6 54.7 55.7 56.0 55.3 LONG(DEG W) 88.6 87.2 85.8 84.2 82.6 77.3 70.6 68.2 69.5 68.9 67.4 66.0 62.2 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 15/ 16 CX,CY: 4/ 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 638 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 36 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 65 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -12. -17. -21. -27. -29. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 5. 7. 13. 20. 24. 29. 34. 37. 36. 33. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -11. -13. -16. -16. -16. -14. -10. -6. -3. -1. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -20. -25. -29. -34. -38. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -13. -16. -21. -25. -29. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 18. 23. 28. 32. 34. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -11. -12. -13. -10. -9. -13. -20. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -11. -12. -13. -10. -9. -13. -20. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KATRINA 8/30/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -20.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 35.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.18 SST (C) : Value: 26.2 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.31 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 77.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.46 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 71.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.46 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)