* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * INVEST 08/30/05 06 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 41 50 59 66 71 76 80 84 87 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 41 50 59 66 71 76 80 84 87 SHEAR (KTS) 3 3 2 4 3 11 14 19 13 20 13 14 11 SHEAR DIR 101 31 360 33 17 73 93 74 62 56 28 43 341 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 149 148 143 139 139 139 142 145 149 152 154 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -52.8 -53.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 500-300 MB RH 62 64 65 66 68 69 68 60 49 44 40 40 43 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 -9 -2 0 -3 -4 0 850 MB VORT 107 94 69 62 51 46 51 53 57 49 52 50 42 LAND (KM) 1529 1562 1606 1665 1618 1569 1567 1603 1645 1618 1537 1423 1350 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.7 11.3 12.1 12.9 14.7 16.4 18.0 19.3 20.7 22.0 23.1 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 35.2 36.3 37.3 38.4 39.5 41.9 44.1 46.1 48.0 49.9 51.5 53.0 54.3 HEAT CONTENT 30 25 25 23 22 35 35 35 39 41 39 36 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 587 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 55 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 9. 14. 17. 21. 24. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 10. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 16. 25. 34. 41. 46. 51. 55. 59. 62. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 11. 16. 25. 34. 41. 46. 51. 55. 59. 62. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/30/05 06 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 3.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.99 SST (C) : Value: 28.5 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.68 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 123.6 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.88 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 78.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.70 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)