* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * KATRINA 08/30/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 24 22 21 21 23 25 26 26 33 37 36 28 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 29 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 25 SHEAR (KTS) 35 35 36 38 39 40 40 27 26 22 18 17 28 SHEAR DIR 226 230 231 258 261 258 254 223 197 187 189 207 234 SST (C) 27.0 26.2 25.3 24.6 23.2 17.2 12.1 9.6 8.2 6.1 4.6 3.5 6.4 POT. INT. (KT) 129 121 113 107 98 77 71 69 69 68 68 67 68 200 MB T (C) -48.3 -48.2 -48.1 -48.3 -48.2 -47.6 -48.5 -48.4 -45.8 -45.2 -44.6 -44.2 -44.2 TH_E DEV (C) 2 6 5 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 500-300 MB RH 57 54 49 45 42 48 57 50 42 53 59 58 49 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 1 1 10 12 26 9 9 16 5 3 1 13 850 MB VORT 81 94 100 110 152 161 127 162 239 255 255 249 195 LAND (KM) -544 -723 -772 -637 -518 -368 -116 -222 -450 -392 -218 -18 224 LAT (DEG N) 35.6 37.1 38.6 40.2 41.8 45.4 49.2 51.8 53.8 55.5 56.4 56.6 56.1 LONG(DEG W) 88.0 86.6 85.1 82.7 80.2 74.1 69.6 68.2 69.1 68.0 65.3 62.0 56.4 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 15/ 16 CX,CY: 4/ 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 663 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 25 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 55 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -16. -18. -21. -22. -21. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR 2. 5. 10. 15. 25. 33. 37. 40. 46. 48. 45. 41. PERSISTENCE -7. -12. -16. -19. -23. -23. -22. -21. -15. -9. -4. -1. 200 MB TEMP. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -20. -25. -29. -35. -39. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -17. -21. -26. -29. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 20. 25. 30. 34. 36. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -6. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. -4. -4. 3. 7. 6. -2. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -8. -9. -9. -7. -5. -4. -4. 3. 7. 6. -2. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) KATRINA 8/30/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -25.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.00 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 36.5 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.15 SST (C) : Value: 25.3 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.16 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 83.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.52 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 69.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.41 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 13.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.81 Scaled RI index= 2.04 Prob of RI= 2.4% is 0.2 times the sample mean(12.1%)