* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * THIRTEEN 08/30/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 26 31 37 44 47 51 57 63 65 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 26 31 37 44 47 51 57 63 65 SHEAR (KTS) 9 10 6 5 3 8 8 8 5 5 13 9 16 SHEAR DIR 310 308 299 307 38 71 117 154 267 292 317 282 295 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 155 154 154 151 148 146 146 148 148 148 149 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.3 -53.5 -53.4 -52.9 -52.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 9 10 9 10 10 500-300 MB RH 58 54 52 51 48 38 33 31 30 30 32 39 43 MO FLX (M/S/D) 18 9 4 6 0 0 -6 -7 0 5 16 -4 -8 850 MB VORT 11 7 4 0 -12 -25 -35 -12 -37 -13 -1 10 24 LAND (KM) 1359 1387 1423 1488 1557 1706 1809 1798 1802 1805 1775 1730 1637 LAT (DEG N) 24.2 25.2 26.2 27.1 28.0 29.4 30.1 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.3 30.5 30.9 LONG(DEG W) 54.2 54.5 54.8 54.8 54.7 54.1 53.4 52.9 53.1 53.3 53.9 54.7 55.9 HEAT CONTENT 35 31 31 28 27 18 11 10 10 11 15 15 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 345/ 20 CX,CY: -4/ 19 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 924 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 28 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 32.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 7. 12. 16. 19. 22. 26. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24. 23. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. -1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -6. -8. -6. -5. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 4. 7. 12. 19. 26. 28. 32. 38. 44. 48. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 24. 27. 31. 37. 43. 45. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) THIRTEEN 8/30/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.53 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.89 SST (C) : Value: 28.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.74 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 134.1 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.98 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 73.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.53 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 25.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.10 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 32.3 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.18 Scaled RI index= 3.95 Prob of RI= 11.1% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12.1%)