* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/30/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 40 49 58 65 71 77 81 86 89 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 40 49 58 65 71 77 81 86 89 SHEAR (KTS) 8 3 2 2 3 10 10 14 13 13 17 8 14 SHEAR DIR 219 246 225 349 43 108 75 64 40 47 18 3 358 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 143 141 139 138 139 142 146 151 152 154 157 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.2 -53.2 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 10 10 11 10 11 10 500-300 MB RH 59 64 64 69 70 72 66 56 49 46 48 50 50 MO FLX (M/S/D) 3 3 2 2 0 -1 -1 -5 -3 -1 -5 -2 -2 850 MB VORT 104 81 67 59 57 50 43 41 49 58 64 68 67 LAND (KM) 1636 1695 1634 1601 1584 1591 1613 1655 1595 1489 1337 1220 1118 LAT (DEG N) 11.5 12.3 13.0 13.9 14.8 16.6 18.1 19.4 20.5 21.7 22.6 23.6 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 36.9 38.2 39.4 40.6 41.8 44.0 46.1 48.0 50.0 51.9 53.7 55.4 57.1 HEAT CONTENT 24 22 23 27 35 35 34 39 42 42 45 54 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 295/ 18 CX,CY: -15/ 8 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 586 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 35 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 24. 33. 41. 47. 53. 58. 63. 66. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 6. 10. 15. 24. 33. 40. 46. 52. 57. 61. 64. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/30/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 3.6 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.97 SST (C) : Value: 28.1 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.63 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 118.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.84 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.61 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.16 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 23.7 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.47 Scaled RI index= 4.38 Prob of RI= 16.5% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.1%)