* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * THIRTEEN 08/30/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 33 39 44 50 53 55 58 61 61 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 33 39 44 50 53 55 58 61 61 SHEAR (KTS) 13 13 13 9 7 5 7 11 6 10 4 9 9 SHEAR DIR 316 296 295 320 349 38 135 213 210 248 272 279 266 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 151 149 146 145 145 145 145 142 138 132 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.1 -53.8 -53.6 -53.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 8 500-300 MB RH 59 58 57 55 50 41 38 38 37 34 33 38 46 MO FLX (M/S/D) 19 11 10 12 7 -5 -5 -8 -7 -2 -1 2 14 850 MB VORT -19 -8 -12 -23 -27 -32 -14 0 8 -28 -16 -35 -21 LAND (KM) 1550 1594 1641 1698 1756 1858 1834 1812 1760 1698 1594 1481 1318 LAT (DEG N) 26.1 27.0 27.8 28.5 29.1 29.9 30.2 30.4 30.7 31.1 31.9 32.8 34.3 LONG(DEG W) 53.2 53.3 53.4 53.3 53.1 52.5 52.4 52.5 53.1 53.7 54.3 54.9 55.1 HEAT CONTENT 28 31 32 26 16 7 8 8 12 17 16 14 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 0/ 19 CX,CY: 0/ 19 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 889 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 17 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 37.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 11. 14. 17. 20. 22. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 17. 19. 21. 22. 23. 22. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 20. 27. 29. 32. 35. 37. 38. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 8. 14. 19. 25. 28. 30. 33. 36. 36. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) THIRTEEN 8/30/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 11.1 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.79 SST (C) : Value: 28.6 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.71 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 126.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.91 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.55 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.36 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 37.4 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.00 Scaled RI index= 4.03 Prob of RI= 12.1% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)