* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * TEST 08/30/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 40 41 42 45 50 53 57 59 63 67 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 40 41 42 45 50 53 57 59 63 67 SHEAR (KTS) 26 21 22 23 26 21 14 15 13 11 8 5 6 SHEAR DIR 102 105 94 89 96 85 67 50 46 51 66 204 162 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.4 27.6 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 138 139 141 145 145 146 149 152 148 137 131 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -52.5 -53.3 -52.6 -53.7 -52.2 -53.3 -51.9 -53.1 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 500-300 MB RH 63 65 61 64 69 69 66 68 64 71 67 74 67 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 7 8 12 6 4 0 1 1 0 0 1 -2 850 MB VORT 25 40 49 51 70 88 98 97 95 100 87 95 101 LAND (KM) 423 579 739 902 1066 1364 1473 1441 1470 1575 1763 1976 1989 LAT (DEG N) 9.9 9.6 9.3 8.9 8.5 7.7 7.2 7.4 8.4 9.9 12.1 14.5 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 19.9 21.4 22.9 24.4 25.8 28.4 30.7 32.1 33.1 33.9 34.8 36.3 38.7 HEAT CONTENT 13 17 18 20 24 49 56 49 33 32 19 11 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 614 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 20 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 19. 21. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -5. -8. -14. -18. -21. -23. -23. -22. -20. -16. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 10. 15. 18. 22. 24. 28. 32. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 10. 15. 18. 22. 24. 28. 32. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) TEST 8/30/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.90 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 23.7 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.47 SST (C) : Value: 27.8 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.57 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 103.8 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.70 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 80.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.76 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value:999.00 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value:999.00 Scaled RI index=999.00 Prob of RI=999.0% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)