* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/30/05 18 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 49 57 65 71 76 80 84 86 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 41 49 57 65 71 76 80 84 86 SHEAR (KTS) 5 7 2 1 5 6 14 8 7 7 11 10 8 SHEAR DIR 241 221 290 267 75 125 83 105 64 340 13 309 313 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 146 142 139 138 138 137 138 141 145 149 152 154 157 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.0 -53.5 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 7 8 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 500-300 MB RH 61 61 67 66 69 71 64 51 45 42 42 42 46 MO FLX (M/S/D) 2 1 2 4 3 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 2 850 MB VORT 69 63 51 41 42 45 41 51 50 45 36 11 2 LAND (KM) 1709 1696 1656 1635 1631 1648 1678 1720 1686 1575 1469 1408 1380 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 13.2 14.0 14.9 15.8 17.5 18.8 20.0 21.5 23.0 24.4 25.7 27.2 LONG(DEG W) 37.6 38.8 40.0 41.2 42.4 44.4 46.2 47.9 49.8 51.4 53.1 54.6 56.3 HEAT CONTENT 23 24 25 33 34 32 30 38 36 37 28 30 28 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 305/ 16 CX,CY: -12/ 9 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 567 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 42 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 12. 15. 19. 22. 26. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 16. 16. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 22. 30. 39. 46. 52. 56. 61. 63. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 16. 24. 32. 40. 46. 51. 55. 59. 61. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/30/05 18 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 4.0 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.96 SST (C) : Value: 27.9 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.59 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 115.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.81 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.59 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.41 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 20.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.59 Scaled RI index= 4.67 Prob of RI= 23.9% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)