* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * THIRTEEN 08/31/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 34 38 44 50 55 59 60 60 58 57 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 34 38 44 50 55 59 60 60 58 57 SHEAR (KTS) 14 16 12 7 5 4 6 7 7 13 7 13 11 SHEAR DIR 300 295 310 354 7 98 198 254 266 300 299 320 291 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.2 26.7 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 149 149 148 145 142 141 139 138 135 132 126 121 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.1 -54.1 -53.7 -53.3 -53.3 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 500-300 MB RH 58 58 57 51 47 43 40 37 37 36 36 37 42 MO FLX (M/S/D) 15 6 5 4 1 -5 0 -3 -5 0 4 30 1 850 MB VORT -18 -17 -27 -27 -19 -32 2 -13 -16 -40 -47 -59 -72 LAND (KM) 1640 1703 1768 1828 1889 1816 1751 1718 1661 1581 1458 1304 1134 LAT (DEG N) 26.9 27.7 28.4 29.0 29.6 30.4 31.0 31.3 31.8 32.5 33.6 35.0 36.6 LONG(DEG W) 52.7 52.5 52.3 52.1 51.8 51.5 51.3 51.3 51.5 51.9 52.0 51.9 51.1 HEAT CONTENT 28 29 24 15 9 6 6 6 5 5 3 5 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 10/ 16 CX,CY: 3/ 16 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 642 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 11 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 20 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 37.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 23. 23. 23. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 13. 19. 26. 31. 35. 36. 36. 35. 33. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 13. 19. 25. 30. 34. 35. 35. 33. 32. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) THIRTEEN 8/31/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.8 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.79 SST (C) : Value: 28.4 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.68 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 123.3 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.88 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 76.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.62 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.48 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 37.9 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.00 Scaled RI index= 4.34 Prob of RI= 15.8% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)