* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * INVEST 08/31/05 00 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 35 39 47 54 62 69 75 79 82 83 V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 35 39 47 54 62 69 75 79 82 83 SHEAR (KTS) 9 5 1 7 11 7 13 7 4 13 6 13 9 SHEAR DIR 209 219 111 92 122 102 103 62 68 344 9 343 348 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.3 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 138 137 137 137 139 142 146 151 154 155 155 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.9 -53.9 -53.2 -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 8 9 9 11 11 12 12 12 500-300 MB RH 60 63 64 68 66 63 55 47 45 44 44 44 43 MO FLX (M/S/D) 1 1 1 0 0 -1 -5 0 0 1 0 0 3 850 MB VORT 68 54 47 48 46 43 46 45 41 22 0 -27 -46 LAND (KM) 1713 1675 1650 1650 1652 1670 1710 1714 1650 1512 1444 1417 1447 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 14.2 14.9 15.8 16.6 18.1 19.4 20.7 22.1 23.4 24.8 26.1 27.6 LONG(DEG W) 38.8 39.9 41.0 42.1 43.1 45.0 46.8 48.7 50.4 52.2 53.6 54.8 55.8 HEAT CONTENT 23 24 33 34 31 32 30 40 34 35 25 31 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 315/ 14 CX,CY: -9/ 10 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 524 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) 44 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 25. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 21. 29. 37. 45. 51. 55. 58. 60. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 14. 22. 29. 37. 44. 50. 54. 57. 58. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) INVEST 8/31/05 00 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.71 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 6.3 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.91 SST (C) : Value: 27.7 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.56 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 113.5 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.79 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 74.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.57 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.39 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.0 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.39 Scaled RI index= 4.32 Prob of RI= 15.6% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12.1%)