* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * THIRTEEN 08/31/05 12 UTC TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 42 47 51 52 52 51 47 42 39 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 42 47 51 52 52 51 47 42 39 SHEAR (KTS) 15 13 11 7 5 9 19 21 26 21 18 15 14 SHEAR DIR 304 319 338 356 323 329 316 326 331 347 349 15 17 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.0 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 142 141 138 134 132 129 129 127 124 123 123 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.6 -53.6 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 500-300 MB RH 58 53 49 46 47 49 46 43 42 46 50 56 55 MO FLX (M/S/D) 6 5 3 -4 -6 -2 0 0 -4 -2 -1 -4 -7 850 MB VORT -32 -30 -19 -24 -24 -4 -26 -54 -76 -85 -113 -120 -109 LAND (KM) 1889 1959 1919 1868 1817 1731 1704 1670 1638 1579 1522 1506 1519 LAT (DEG N) 28.4 29.0 29.6 30.1 30.6 31.5 31.9 32.3 32.6 33.2 33.9 34.3 34.2 LONG(DEG W) 50.8 50.4 50.0 49.7 49.4 48.7 47.9 47.5 47.5 47.3 46.7 45.9 45.8 HEAT CONTENT 20 16 11 8 8 10 10 9 8 6 4 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM STORM HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KTS) 40/ 13 CX,CY: 8/ 10 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB) 597 (MEAN=643) 200 MB DIVERGENCE x10**5 (T=0) -1 (MEAN= 23) T-12 MAXIMUM WIND (KTS) 25 GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=68.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. 18. 17. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 500-300 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV. VORT. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 16. 20. 22. 22. 22. 18. 14. 11. INTENSITY ADJUSTMENTS FROM SATELLITE INPUT 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 21. 22. 22. 21. 17. 12. 9. ** 2005 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) THIRTEEN 8/31/05 12 UTC 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): Value: 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 25.0 Scaled value: 0.88 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : Value: 10.4 Range: 42.5 to 2.5 Scaled value: 0.80 SST (C) : Value: 28.0 Range: 24.3 to 30.4 Scaled value: 0.60 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : Value: 111.7 Range: 27.1 to 136.4 Scaled value: 0.77 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): Value: 75.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled value: 0.60 % area w/pixels <-30 C: Value: 70.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled value: 0.64 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : Value: 26.5 Range: 37.5 to 8.0 Scaled value: 0.37 Scaled RI index= 4.67 Prob of RI= 24.3% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.1%)